| 摘要: |
| 为了解决平原水库安全评价中存在的忽略生态和可持续性问题，针对平原水库面积大、水深小、坝线长和基础处理差的特点，在健康功能分区的基础上，综合考虑安全、生态特征、可持续性和社会政治环境等因素构建了平原水库健康综合评价体系，指标体系包括围坝安全、水库社会效益、水库生态效应和状态持续性4类一级指标和15个二级指标。利用模糊数学方法提高层次分析法确定各指标权重的准确性，构建平原水库健康综合评价的多目标多层次模糊模型，克服了传统评价方法的主观随意性，系统分析各类指标的耦合影响，改进评判分析的不确定性。评价结果表明：该方法操作方便、效果较好，可用于一般水库的健康评价。 |
| 关键词: 平原水库 健康评价 模糊层次分析法 指标体系 权重 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV697 |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2015BAB07B05);山东省省级水利科研及技术项目(SDSLKY201305);山东省农业重大应用技术创新项目（SDNYCX1531963）；山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2013EEM002) |
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| Comprehensive assessment of plain reservoir health based on fuzzy and hierarchy analyses |
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YUE Qiang1,2, LIU Fu-sheng1,2, LIU Zhong-qiu1
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1.College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an;2.Agricultural Big Data Center, Tai’an
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| Abstract: |
| The characteristics of ecosystem and sustainability have been ignored in safety evaluation for the plain reservoir. The plain reservoir has special characteristics such as large area, shallow water depth, long dam length and poor foundation treatment. On the basis of the health function regionalization, the comprehensive health assessment system for the plain reservoirs is established according to its safety, ecosystem characteristics, persistence, and other social， political and environmental factors. This index system includes 4 first-grade indexes, namely reservoir safety, social benefits, ecological effects and health persistence, and 15 second-grade indexes. In order to overcome the shortcomings of randomness and subjectivity in the traditional evaluation method and to eliminate the uncertainty during the evaluation process, a multi-objective and multi-layer fuzzy model for comprehensive health assessment of the plain reservoir is proposed, where the weight of each indicator is determined based on an improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method combined with fuzzy analysis of the relevant relationships of each indicator. The case history indicates that the research method is feasible and effective, and can be used widely in the reservoir health assessment. The analysis results obtained from this study are beneficial to the sustainable development and scientific management of the plain reservoirs |
| Key words: plain reservoir health assessment fuzzy analytic hierarchy process index system weighting |
