| 摘要: |
| 地下洞室群围岩稳定性风险研究尚处于起步阶段，为快速准确地对施工期地下洞室群围岩稳定性风险进行动态跟踪分析，基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法，形成监测数据、巡视检查、数值模拟三维一体的评价体系，并考虑评价指标、评价标准的动态性确定地下洞室群围岩发生事故可能性等级。根据不同围岩破坏形式，提出适用于地下洞室群围岩稳定的损失估算方法，引入当量法概念，确定地下洞室群围岩稳定损失等级。结合地下洞室群围岩发生事故可能性等级和预估的地下洞室群围岩稳定性损失等级，经风险矩阵最终确定地下洞室群围岩稳定性风险等级。采用C#Net、SQL SERVER和Python混合编程技术，研发一套能确定地下洞室群围岩稳定性动态风险的系统。该系统应用于国内某在建大型水电站的地下洞室群，能准确确定影响地下洞室群围岩稳定性的关键因素和危险区域，实时指导施工过程，规避可能存在的风险，保证地下洞室群施工安全。 |
| 关键词: 地下洞室群 围岩 层次分析法 模糊综合评价 当量法 动态风险分析 系统开发 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TU923 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51379141）；国家创新研究群体科学基金资助项目（51321065）；水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目；天津市应用基础与前沿技术研究计划资助项目（13JCYBJC19400） |
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| Dynamic risk analysis and system development for stability of surrounding rock of underground carven group |
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ZHANG Chao, ZHANG She-rong, CUI Wei, WANG Chao
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State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin
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| Abstract: |
| Risk research on stability of the surrounding rock of the underground carven group is still in its initial period. In order to make a dynamic tracing of risk analysis of stability of the surrounding rock in the process of construction of the underground carven group rapidly and accurately, an evaluation system is composed of the observed data and patrol inspection data and numerical simulation data based on an analytic hierarchy process method and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Dynamic evaluation content and a dynamic criterion are also considered at the same time to determine the level of the probability of an accident of the surrounding rock of the underground carven group. The estimation methods of the loss which is suitable for the surrounding rock of the underground carven group are put forward based on different forms of destruction of the surrounding rock, and the concept of an equivalent law is also introduced to determine the level of the loss of the surrounding rock of the underground carven group if the accident happens. Finally, the risk level of the surrounding rock of the underground carven group is determined by risk matrix and both the level of probability of the accident of the surrounding rock of the underground carven group and the level of the loss of the surrounding rock of the underground carven group. A dynamic risk calculation system for stability of the surrounding rock of the underground carven group is developed by using microsoft visual C#. Net technology and SQL server 2008 database and Python language. The system is used to analyse risks in an underground carven group of a hydropower station project in China during its construction and it could find key factors acting on stability of the surrounding rock and accurately determing the danger zone of the surrounding rock. The progress of the construction of the underground carven group is real-time guided and the risk which may exist is also avoided so that the safety and reliability of construction of the underground cavern group can be ensured. |
| Key words: underground carven group surrounding rock analytic hierarchy process fuzzy comprehensive evaluation an equivalent method dynamic risk analysis system research and development |
