| 摘要: |
| 受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响，流域环境的变化导致流域径流发生了很大的变化，对流域水资源管理提出了新的挑战。区分和界定气候变化与人类活动对流域径流的影响，对减缓和适应环境变化的有关措施和行动具有重要的科学支撑价值，也是流域水资源可持续管理中亟待解决的关键问题之一。目前基于水文模型的划分方法在年以上尺度的分析中存在均化效应和附加误差，且由于参数较多相对比较复杂，存在的不确定性因素较多。本研究基于Budyko假设理论建立一种区分气候变化和人类活动对流域径流影响的界定方法，并选取黄土高原三川河流域进行应用分析，通过与VIC模型分析结果比较研究表明，对于年以上尺度径流变化分析，该研究中建立的方法具有较好的适用性。由于气候变化和人类活动对流域径流的影响缺乏真值，该方法丰富了这一问题的研究理论，增进了对该区域环境变化影响的认识。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 人类活动 Budyko假设 径流 界定 三川河流域 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P467；P339 |
| 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）资助项目（2010CB951103）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51009094；41330854；41371063）； 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目（Y514007） |
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| An attribution method for catchment-scale runoff variation evaluation under environmental change based on Budyko hypothesis |
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LIU Yan-li, WANG Guo-qing, JIN Jun-liang, BAO Zhen-xin, LIU Cui-shan
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State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering， Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute， Research Center for Climate Change
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| Abstract: |
| Impacted by climate change and human activity， catchment scale environment has changed and leaded to remarkable runoff variation， which poses a new challenge to water resources management. Attributing and defining the climate change and the human activity impacts on catchment runoff could scientifically support the measures and actions of environmental change mitigation and adaptation， which is also one of the urgent key problems in sustainable water resources management. In current studies， the hydrological model-based methods indicate averaging effect and additive error above annual scale， and are normally complicated with more uncertainties due to excessive parameters. Based on Budyko hypothesis， this study has presented an attribution method to assess catchment scale runoff variation impacted by the climate change and the human activity. The Sanchuan River basin in Loess Plateau is selected as a case study. The analysis results show that the proposed method has a preferable applicability to runoff variation analysis for annual scale， compared with the application from VIC model. Because there are no true values of separated impacts from the climate change and the human activity， this method enriches the research theory for the issues， and facilitates the understanding of the impact of the regional environmental change. |
| Key words: climate change human activity Budyko hypothesis runoff attribution Sanchuan River basin |
