| 摘要: |
| 基于1951—2011年逐日降水数据，采用信息熵分配紊乱指数、基尼系数和变差系数3种不均匀性指标，分析旬、月时间尺度上太湖流域及各分区降水分布的不均匀性。比较3种不均匀性指数的差异，并探讨指数与流域洪涝灾害的相关关系；同时采用基于预置白处理的 Mann-Kendall方法和Hurst系数，诊断降水不均匀性指数的变化趋势及持续性，分析对流域旱涝灾害情势的可能影响。结果表明：3种不均匀性指数间的差异较小；当年或汛期降水总量和不均匀性指数值均较大时，太湖流域较容易遭遇洪涝灾害，而在降水总量较小且不均匀性指数值较大时，则容易遭遇干旱灾害。在月时间尺度上，太湖流域汛期降水的不均匀性将持续增加，降水分布具有更为集中的态势，发生洪涝灾害的风险将有所增加。因此，有必要继续分析降水在空间上的不均匀性，以揭示降水在空间尺度上的分布差异，继而为流域防灾减灾提供技术支持。 |
| 关键词: 太湖流域 降水 不均匀性 基尼系数 信息熵分配紊乱指数 旱涝灾害 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P338 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109136)；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001002；201201072-2) |
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| Heterogeneity study of rainfall in the Taihu Lake basin |
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DENG Peng-xin, HU Qing-fang, WANG Yin-tang, WANG Lei-zhi, CUI Ting-ting
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State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering， Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the annual rainfall series in the Taihu Lake basin and seven sub-areas during the period of 1951—2011， three heterogeneity indices such as the apportionment entropy disorder index， Gini coefficient and variational coefficient have been applied to analyze the heterogeneity of the annual and rainy season rainfall distribution at the monthly and decadal scales. The relationships between the historical flood or drought and the heterogeneity indices are investigated. The long term changing trend and constancy of rainfall in the homogeneity indices are tested by the trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall and Hurst. Also， its possible influences on future drought or flood have been primarily discussed in this study. Analysis results show that there are small differences among the three kinds of the rainfall heterogeneity indices. When the annual rainfall and heterogeneity index values are both high， it is easy for the study area to suffer flood disaster. When the annual rainfall is relatively low while the index values is high， it is easy to suffer drought. With the heterogeneity of rainfall distribution in the rainy season increases significantly， the risk of drought and disasters is also rising in the coming years. So it is necessary to continue to analyze precipitation heterogeneity in the space in order to reveal precipitation differences in the space scales. The study would provide a technical support to disaster prevention and disaster reduction for the basin. |
| Key words: Taihu Lake basin rainfall heterogeneity Gini coefficient apportionment entropy disorder index drought and flood disaster |
