引用本文:彭雪辉,盛金保,李雷,刘来红,周克发,郑昊尧.我国水库大坝风险标准制定研究[J].水利水运工程学报,2014,(4):7-13
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我国水库大坝风险标准制定研究
彭雪辉1, 盛金保1, 李雷1, 刘来红2, 周克发1, 郑昊尧1
1.南京水利科学研究院;2.南京南瑞集团公司
摘要:
介绍了生命风险标准、经济风险标准、社会与环境风险标准的建立方法及表达方式,分析了国外主要风险标准之间的异同点。将我国大坝风险分为可接受风险、可容忍风险、不可接受风险和极高风险四个区域,分别用目标线、容许线和高风险线来区分。根据我国3 513座水库溃坝资料,提出了我国个体生命风险标准、群体生命风险标准。在此基础上,根据《生产安全事故报告和调查处理条例》,提出了经济风险标准。最后,提出了社会与环境影响指数计算方法及社会与环境风险标准,可为我国水库大坝风险决策提供依据。
关键词:  大坝风险  生命风险  经济风险  社会与环境风险  风险标准  溃坝概率
DOI:
分类号:TV697
基金项目:十一五国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC14B07);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201201051)
Research on dam risk criteria of China
PENG Xue-hui1, SHENG Jin-bao1, LI Lei1, LIU Lai-hong2, ZHOU Ke-fa1, ZHENG Hao-yao1
1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;2.Nanjing Nari Group Corporation
Abstract:
This paper shows how to establish the life risk criteria, economic risk criteria, socio environmental risk criteria and their detailed description. The main similarities and differences of the risk criteria of HSE (from UK), ANCOLD (from Australia) and USBR (from USA) have been analyzed. In China, the dam risks are classified into four regions: acceptable risk, tolerable risk, unacceptable risk and extremely high risk, which are respectively subdivided by the objective limit, tolerable limit and limit of the high risk. According to the data collected from 3 513 cases of reservoir dam-break in our country, the individual life risk criteria and the societal life risk criteria have been suggested by our researchers. On this basis, the economic risk criteria are put forward in accordance with the “Regulations on Production Safety Accident Reporting, Investigation and Handling”. And finally, a calculation method for the socio-environmental impact index and socio-environmental risk criteria is developed through detailed analysis and research, which can provide a sound basis for dam risk decision-making.
Key words:  dam risk  life risk  economic risk  socio-environmental risk  risk criteria  probability of dam failure
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