引用本文:陈在铁,任青文.具有多个失效模式的高拱坝失效概率计算[J].水利水运工程学报,2007,(2):54-57
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具有多个失效模式的高拱坝失效概率计算
陈在铁1,任青文2
1. 河海大学,土木工程学院,江苏,南京,210098;沙洲工学院,江苏,张家港,215600
2. 河海大学,土木工程学院,江苏,南京,210098
摘要:
利用故障树分析法得出了高拱坝具有失稳溃坝、剪滑垮坝、超量开裂及毁坝等4种主要失效模式．以计算高拱坝剪滑溃坝发生概率为例，说明利用二阶矩法计算高拱坝各主要失效模式发生概率的步骤，进而求解各失效模式的相关程度及具有多个失效模式高拱坝的失效概率．
关键词:  失效模式  失效概率  风险评价  高拱坝
DOI：
分类号:TV698.21
基金项目:国家自然科学基金
Failure probability calculation of high arch dams with multi-failure modes
CHEN Zai-tie1,REN Qing-wen2
1. College of Civil Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Shazhou Institute of Technology, Zhangjiagang 215600, China
Abstract:
Four major failure modes for high arch dams, namely destabilization dam lost stability failure, shearing- slipping failure, excess cracking and man-caused destruction, are presented by means of failure tree analysis. Based on the calculation of sheafing-slipping failure probability of high arch dams, the calculation method and procedures are presented by use of the Second Moment Method for calculation of the occurrence probability of the major failure modes of high arch dams, and the relation degree between the major failure modes and the failure probability with multi-failure modes of the high arch dam are calculated.
Key words:  failure mode  failure probability  risk evaluation  high arch dams
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