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| 摘要: |
| 将各种不确定性因素（包括随机初值条件、随机系数和随机作用项等）引入河道水面线的推求过程，建立了计算河道水面线的随机微分方程。运用Ｆｏｋｋｅｒ－Ｐｌａｎｃｋ方程，求解河道水面线过程的概率密度。在此基础上，进行了河道行洪的风险分析，为堤防的安全、合理设计提供了条件。 |
| 关键词: 风险分析，随机微分方程，河道水面线，概率密度 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV871 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Risk analysis of flood flow in river by using stochastic differential equation |
|
Jiang Shuhai
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|
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| After introducing various uncertain factors including a stochastic initial condition,a stochastic coefficient and a stochastic input term into calculating program of flow profiles in river, a stochastic differential equation is established. By using the Fokker - Planck equation, the probability density distributions of flow profiles in river are solved. Then,the risk analysis of flood flow in river is presented, and a safe and reasonable design method for flood protection embankment is suggested. |
| Key words: risk analysis, stochastic differential equation, flow profiles in river,probability density, |
