| 摘要: |
| 在分析传统年径流模型的缺陷后，提出了一种较适合于年径流系列的非负自回归模型，并着重对水文上较常用的非负ＡＲ（１）模型做了研究；提出了估计模型回归系数的新方法，导出了水文变量统计参数与随机项参数关系，还对模型的适用条件做了分析。 |
| 关键词: 径流模型，非负自回归，回归系数，年径流系列，皮尔逊－Ⅲ分布 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV121 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Non-negative hydrological autoregressive model and a new estimation method of its autoregressive coefficients |
|
Chen Yuanfang
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| Abstract: |
| non-negative autoregressive model suitable to annual runoff series is developed in this paper after analyzing the defects of present model of annual runoff series. The study in this paper is concentrated in the non-negative AR (1) model which is often used in the simulation of annual runoff series. In the above AR (1 ) model, the relation between the parameters of runoff and those of random term of the model is derived,a new estimation method of autoregressive coefficient is obtained. The results of experiment of Monte-Carlo show that the new estimation methods is much more effective than the present methods. |
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